The RRM-FT is a semi-quantitative risk-ranking model that scores commodity-hazard pairs according to data and seven criteria. Click on a Criterion to obtain a highlight of the scoring definition, the data sources and an example.

• Criterion 1 (C1): Frequency of outbreaks and occurrence of illnesses,
• Criterion 2 (C2): Severity of illness,
• Criterion 3 (C3): Likelihood of contamination,
• Criterion 4 (C4): Growth potential, with consideration of shelf life,
• Criterion 5 (C5): Manufacturing process contamination probability and industry-wide intervention,
• Criterion 6 (C6): Consumption, and
• Criterion 7 (C7): Cost of illness.

These criteria are consistent with the requirements in section 204(d)(2)(A) (21 U.S. Code § 2223(d)(2)(A)).

The methods document “Methodological Approach to Developing a Risk-Ranking Model for Food Tracing FSMA Section 204 (21 U.S. Code § 2223))” is downloadable here.

The full list of references evaluated and used to obtain data for the scoring of the seven criteria for commodity-hazard pairs in the RRM-FT is downloadable here.

Calculation of the Risk Score for a Commodity

To calculate a risk score for a commodity (fictitious example: “Commodity A”), we first obtain the risk score(s) for the commodity-hazard pair(s) (e.g. “Commodity A - Hazard 1”, “Commodity A - Hazard 2”, “Commodity A - Hazard 3”, etc.) and then aggregate the commodity-hazard pair risk score(s) into a commodity risk score.

1. Commodity-Hazard Pair Risk Score

A risk score for a commodity-hazard pair is calculated by summing weighted criteria scores across all seven criteria. Equal weighting (criteria weight = 10) was used for each criterion (see § 5.4 of the method document). For example, say that the pair “Commodity A - Hazard 1” has criterion scores as follows:

The Risk Score for “Commodity A - Hazard 1” is then:

Commodity-Hazard Pair Risk Score = (10 × 9) + (10 × 9) + (10 × 1) + (10 × 3) + (10 × 3) + (10 × 9) + (10 × 9) = 430

2. Commodity Risk Score

For a commodity associated with multiple hazards, i.e., multiple commodity-hazard pairs are identified, a Commodity Risk Score is calculated through an aggregation method according to the following formula:

$$RS_i\_C=10\times\log_{10}(\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}10^{RS_{i,j}/10})$$

where,

 RS_i_C is the aggregated risk score associated with commodity i;

 RS_i,j is the risk score for commodity i and the j^th hazard;

 n_i is the number of hazards associated with commodity i.

(The division of the individual risk scores by 10 is for computational reasons. To return to the original scale, the result is then multiplied by 10.)

For example, say that the commodity “Commodity A” is associated with the following commodity-hazard pairs:

The Commodity Risk Score is then:

Commodity Risk Score = 10 × [log₁₀ (10⁴³+10³⁵+10³³+10²⁰)] = 430.

The Commodity Risk Score is driven by the risk score for the highest-ranking commodity-hazard pair.